At first sight, the stable’s campaign in June 2008 looks like a particularly poor one. Our tally of winners, as at 29th June, stands at just nine. If the five declared runners on 30th June fail to produce a winner, it will be just the third time since June 1993 that the stable has failed to win at least ten races in a month in the midsummer months of June, July and August. Add to that stark statistic the fact that the stable endured a poor Royal Ascot and you have the makings of a midsummer depression.
But closer scrutiny of our June performance offers a glimmer of hope. No fewer than twenty-one of our one hundred and twenty-eight runners finished in second place (a whopping 16.4%). The stable seems to have caught a nasty case of seconditis!
When we spoke to Mark on 26th June, he was in reflective mood. Acknowledging that the number of winners was disappointing, he pointed out that he doubts if statistics are scrutinised more carefully, and on a daily basis, in any other British racing yard. Clearly it was frustrating that the winners weren’t on the board, but did that necessarily mean that the horses were running badly? Could the yard be seen as having a problem?
One tried and tested barometer of the wellbeing of the string at MJR is the tally of the percentage of horses who are placed. Mark explained to us that if the percentage of the runners finishing placed is 33%, he would regard that as normal. A percentage rate of 25% would be regarded as the minimum acceptable level of performance, and anything above 50% would mean that the yard was ‘flying.’ Judged against those standards, June gains its passmarks, the twenty-one second-placed horses and thirteen thirds boosting the percentage placed tally to 33.59%.
Ever the perfectionist, Mark stressed that this alternative view of the merit of the June campaign should not lead to complacency. In particular, he wondered aloud whether the fact that so many horses have come close to winning but failed might suggest that the horses are lacking a vital edge to their fitness. Similarly, the performance of the juveniles was frustrating, with ‘form lines’ observed at home seeming not to work out on the track, leaving Mark to ponder whether he had chosen the correct horses to run.
Rest assured these theories will be pursued in a way which befits the stable ethos of ‘Always Trying’. The tried and tested procedures that have seen Mark rise to the top of the training ranks continue to be in place. No stone will be left unturned in the continuing effort to produce the best possible return to our customers, the owners.
June has not been without its successes, and Peppertree Lane lifted a Listed race at Goodwood for the older generation. You can read about his exploits elsewhere in this month’s issue.